Another Year Comes to a Close

As December 28 approaches we are nearly upon the end of another calendar year. It is a time to pause and reflect. We might be inclined to wonder if 2016 will be more of the same, or better or worse than 2015.

I'm of the opinion that we should not expect things to be better unless we have put in place those things that are required to make 2016 a "better" year. In a HOA, if the boards, owners and other residents operate the same as they did last year, then it should be expected that the results will be no different than the previous year.  Of course, there will always be circumstances beyond our control. I won't be worrying about those in 2016.

As for BLMH what is to be expected in 2016? It will be whatever we create as owners, residents and board members. Added to that will be a few breakdowns and a few surprises.

Living in a HOA is community living. If we think of life as having "ups and downs" and accept this as normal, then we discover that community living is like a heartbeat:

Community living involves certain risks. We assume our neighbors will be good neighbors and they assume we will also be good neighbors. We assume everyone will pay their fees, will keep the rules and will cooperate with management and the board.

We assume some people will show up to perform the tasks of board members. We also assume things will proceed smoothly. As the above graph demonstrates, even the blood flowing in our veins and arteries does so with some inconsistency.

Our heartbeat becomes smooth and unchanging only after death. So it is with life in general; only after we are dead will the chart be a straight line:

I expect 2016 will have ups and downs and more of the same as did 2015.

The attitude and involvement of our owners follows the classic bell shaped curve in which there are several distinct groups and most fall into the center. Here is an example of such a curve for grading tests; as can be seen, most test scores would be a "C" or average. There will be a few "A"s and at the other extreme a few "F"s. The curve shows the percentage of students who received each grade:

Similarly, the owners and residents of a HOA fall into similar groups. We aren't grading them, merely describing where they are in most things.

For example, there is the keeping of rules. That is measurable. Paying fees in a timely manner is a rule, completing census forms is a rule, cooperating with the neighbors in a community is a rule and so on.

Some owners don't keep the rules in any month. They may fail to pay their fees, may fail to move their vehicle preferring to store in on the street, leave their trash receptacles outm or may get into a feud with a neighbor. They will be the small group to the left of the curve. Most owners pay their fees in a timely manner, cooperate with the HOA management and the board and in general are nearly invisible to others and could be described as "good neighbors." They are the group in the middle. To the left of the curve are the group that doesn't vote at annual elections. To the right of the middle of the curve are those who do vote during annual elections. To the right is also a smaller group which attends HOA meetings, those who participates as committee members and further to the right are the members of the board (currently numbering 6 out of 336).

What we cannot predict is in which group each of our HOA owners will fall, beyond that obvious central group. In that group most owners will pay their fees and will be more or less invisible. Similarly if we charted events at our HOA, we could conclude that most will follow last year's events and fall within that central group of "C's".

If the above is correct, then why would we ever expect 2016 to be any different than 2015? Another way to say this is to state that if owners expect a "better" 2016 they will be the one's who create it. It won't happen by itself. In fact, entropy is the nature state of the universe. Unless we create a better future it will most likely be worse than the past.