Intentional Homicides - Chicago Murder Capital?

Chicago has gained some national notoriety in recent years, even being called "The murder capital of the US." Some of that might be a reaction to the violence against children as a consequence of gang shootings and so on.  Those deaths of the young are particularly disturbing and appalling. 24% of this crime occurs in only 5% of the city, it has been reported.

The numbers can be horrifying. However, it is also true that it is inaccurate to compare deaths without being aware of the size of the community. 5 murders in a city of 25,000 sounds like a low number while 100 murders in a city of 12 million sounds worse. But it is really? It is more realistic and less sensationalistic to consider the number of murders per 100,000 population.

In my earlier example, 5 murders per 25,000 is 20 per 100,000 population. 100 murders in a city of 12 million is actually fewer than 1 murder per 100,000! (0.8333 murders per 100,000). The homicide rate in the larger city is six times smaller that that of the small city.  This implies it is safer to live in the larger city, even though it does have more homicides. Think of it this way, fewer people are killed per city block in the larger city.

Yet, despite the hyperbola what is really true on the planet? According to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime's International Homicide Statistics database for 2014, in the world there were 5.3 homicide deaths per 100,000 population. There were 3.9 homicides per 100,000 overall in the US in 2013. Here are some statistics (homicides per 100,000 population) in countries or regions in which is was 10 or more per 100,000; I've added the statistics for Chicago:

Honduras 75
El Salvador 64
Venezuela 62
Jamaica 36
Belize 34
South Africa 33
Guatemala 31
Columbia 28
Caribbean small states  27
Trinidad and Tobago 26
Brazil 25
Latin America and Caribbean 23
Puerto Rico 19
Chicago, Illinois 18.5
Dominican Republic 17
Mexico 16
Uganda 12
Costa Rica 10
Philippines  10
Russian Federation 10

So how did certain cities in the US fare back in 2013 or 2014?

Flint Michigan 62 homicides per 100,000.
Detroit 54.6  per 100,000.
New Orleans 53.2 per 100,000.
Jackson, Miss., 35.8 per 100,000.
Another 17 cities with more than 18.5 homicides per 100,000.
Chicago,18.5 homicides per 100,000

A reported by the Pew Research Center in 2014. "...from 1985 through 2012 only six cities have held the anti-honor of having the nation’s highest murder rate: New Orleans (12 times, most recently in 2011); Washington, D.C. (eight times, most recently in 1999); Detroit (four times, most recently 2006), Flint, Mich. (twice, also in 2010); Richmond, Va. (once, in 1997) and Birmingham, Ala. (once, in 2005)." However, New Orleans did not bother to report statistics in 2005 after Katrina. Yes, it really was that bad!

Here is a quote from the Pew article: "Another thing that jumps out from looking at the murder-rate data: How the threshold for having the nation’s highest murder rate has fallen since the early 1990s, when the nation’s crack epidemic helped push violent-crime rates to record highs. In 1994, for instance, New Orleans led with 85.8 murders per 100,000; the next two cities, Richmond, Va., and Washington, D.C., had rates of 70 or more per 100,000. Even in terms of raw numbers, Chicago has come a long way: In 1994 the city had 928 murders."

Compare the numbers in the UN data, and you can see how really horrific the 1990s were in the US. Do you want to return to "the good old days?" Chicago certainly has serious problems and they should be addressed. But don't listen to the "talking heads" or the entertainment elites.


http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/07/14/despite-recent-shootings-chicago-nowhere-near-u-s-murder-capital/



Notes:
Reliable, recent global statistics are difficult to find. Which is why I used slightly dated information. In the spirit of completeness I'm adding the following. In 2016 it was reported that Chicago had more than 760 homicides and 4,300 shootings. There were about 4.9 homicides per 100,000. This is less than half during the peak of 10 per 100,000 in 1980. Chicago's mayor is calling for more money to deal with this.