Preparing for the Thaw

This post will show some of the icing we've experienced this year and the efforts the BLMH HOA has taken to deal with this. Of course, our management, snow removal contractor and maintenance have worked very, very hard to deal with the frequent and significant snow accumulations, unusual ice conditions, salt & calcium chloride supply problems and so on.

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An Unusual Winter, forecasting or entertainment?
This year, with a more southerly jet stream we've had some unusually cold weather and with it an unusual amount of snow. Reminiscent of 1979. However, the jet stream is shifting as are the cold fronts. The earth too is continuing in its orbit around the sun and now the days are lengthening as the sun appears to be "moving" from the southern hemisphere to the northern. With it we will see warming.

The weather experts tell us to expect a "wintry mix" on Monday. [Update - That's now simply "snow - about 1 inch" with a low temperature of 12F.] [2nd Update - Now it's "2 to 4 inches of snow accumulating" on Monday]. The "big deal" comes Thursday, when temperatures will be somewhere in the range of 41 to 49F with freezing rain. That night, the temperature will fall to 23F and any standing water will freeze. This is the current expert prediction on February 15.

This has been a rough year for the experts. The Chicago area has been on the cusp of numerous fronts and so a frontal shift north or south by 50 miles can and has made a difference in our weather.  I decided to pay attention to Monday's prediction and make it an example.

Monday was predicted to peak at 35F with a wintery mix of possible snow and sleet. Then it became 6.5 inches, then it was lowered to 1 inch, now it's "2 to 4" inches. Yawn!
From there the peak daytime temperatures were predicted to increase to 40F for the remainder of the week, and drop to the 20s each night. This would result in a "thaw-freeze-thaw-freeze" week. This could make the streets in the area really dangerous. Of course, ice & snow melt is in short supply.

This is all subject to change and the predictions have been changing on the hour. On the 14th the weather guy at NBC was predicting severe icing but that has now moved south. He also predicted about 6.5 inches of snow for our area. The expectation for tonight is about 1 inch and some snow on Monday (less than 1 inch). In the forecasting department Mr. Skilling hasn't been doing all that better. I prefer the web; it is less time consuming, I can get what I need when I need it without all of that arm waving, myriad colorful charts and commercials preceded by "Another major storm is on the way. We'll tell you all about it after this commercial." Perhaps this is to be expected as weather forecasting has now become a money maker and entertainment, not information. This year, the only thing I am certain of is that we will have weather. As for the details, none of our weather people can predict the future with absolute certainty.

This year, I have monitored trends as more important than details. When snow is predicted it does usually come, but it might be at the low end of the predicted range. I wish I had taken the high numbers and added them for the year. I suspect that high predicted total would have been double what we actually received.

BTW, if you want weather entertainment, I suggest "Storm Chasers" on Netflix. Currently 27 episodes are available for streaming.  "Storm Chasers heads to Tornado Alley as research meteorologist Josh Wurman, filmmaker Sean Casey, and weather expert and videographer Reed Timmer pursue deadly twisters, and attempt to capture nature at its most extreme." Some episodes include former Chicago weather person Ginger "Zee" Renee Zuidgeest.

We have experienced some Heaving
The freezing of water beneath driveways and slabs has caused some heaving. Water expands when the molecules realign during the transition from liquid to solid. That expansion can lift driveways and streets. Here's an example of an asphalt driveway that lifted about 3/4 inch. The driveway will return to normal height when the ground has thawed. This will be a handy indicator of the Spring ground condition.

Preparing for the Thaw at BLMH

Maintenance raked the roofs (again) over the A&B garages on Friday in anticipation of the coming thaw and possible rain. Storm sewers were also being uncovered to provide any thaw a place to go. This winter, there have been more frequent, ongoing discussions between management, maintenance and the board about the weather and the conditions of the salt and calcium chloride inventory. The most recent was at Thursday's association meeting.

The problem is very consistent. We have 84 entrances on 44 buildings. The roof design is the same for all. However, building orientation makes a difference and some buildings have a gabled entrance, some a shed roof entrance and some no protection of the entrance. These photos demonstrate the problem and also show the roofs shortly after raking of snow.

Now, not everyone thinks we've been on the ball about this. So what else is new? The photos above indicate the problem and it's pretty consistent. Yes, the orientation does make a difference and some buildings get blowing snow against the entrances, while others get none. Some have full shade on the driveways for most of the day, some get full sun in the morning, etc. For all, the problem is the consequence of a very large roof which, by design, channels all that snow into a narrow space over two garage doors. A substantial amount is also diverted to sides of the gabled entrance or off of the edge of the shed roof entrance. The result is ice. We have moved the downspouts off of the driveway as part of the current roofing project, which is about 56% complete. Where downspouts have been relocated all melting water is no longer deposited on the driveways to form a skating rink. The gutters do fill with ice and freeze. However, raking the roofs and application of salt to the gutter does free them up. This work has been done several times this winter. 

Of course, with the ground thoroughly frozen, there may be no where for the water in those gutters to go but onto the lawns and melting icicles do flow onto the concrete. New drainage improvements include underground discharge of the gutter downspouts, but I suspect that with the frost line down about 48 inches that these are all frozen. 

One very expensive solution is electric heating of the gutters. I did that at a home I once owned. However, I can't even consider it here unless we put in our own wind farm or solar systems to generate our own electrical power. I can't see owners thanking the board for spending tens of thousands of dollars on gutter heat tracing and paying much larger association electric bills. 

Another solution? Move to south Florida.   Of course, for most of us that's not a practical approach. Some don't like the hot, humid summers, hurricanes and other weather improvements. So we will deal with the winter we have. It is somewhat ironic to watch the "Winter Olympics" in Sochi where the temperatures have been in the 40s and as high as 60F!

Icing and Ice Dams
These are another consequence of the weather. The design of the buildings creates some interesting, and the occasional spectacular ice formation. However, we have had very little damage so far from "ice dams." We'll know more after the real thaw. Work orders and repair notices are generated for every report. These are reviewed by the entire board. In some cases these result in work and in others inspections. That determination is not made by the board. All work orders are acted upon. I encourage owners to call management because I view these work orders as "condition reports" and they are useful. I'll update my spread sheet of the leak and roof reports with comments at the conclusion of the winter and this will be used as in past years for the purpose of evaluating what worked, what failed and how to make improvements.

I've been monitoring the performance of these systems throughout the property and I have my opinion. It is based on numerous physical inspections of the property, the complaints and reports of residents with some inspections by me to get a better idea of the precise cause, nature and severity. There are also the work orders and discussions with maintenance and management.  I retired my snowshoes some years ago.

Maintenance has applied ice melt to the gutters over the driveways several times this winter as well as clearing icicles from these and the entrance roofs. They will be doing it again. This, combined with the raking will aid in the thaw. Exposing the roof to the heat of the sun aids this quite a lot. There is something to be said for dark roofs and asphalt driveways, both of which will heat when there is full sun.

Historical Range for Today's Weather
To provide a little perspective to the weather, here is recent historical data for today, February 15. This is from 1995 to the present year. We're in a pattern at the low end of the average temperatures.

The actual forecast for today is:

•  A high of 25F and a low of 14F. 

The average temperature for today is:

• A high of 39F and a low of 23F. 

The historical ranges are:

• The lowest temperatures were in the range -9F to 6F
• The highest temperatures were in the range 56 to 80F.

Recent record temperatures for February 15:

• 0F in 1999
• 54F in 2007.

Current Regional Weather Radar - February 15, 2014 04:40PM CST

This storm is moving from west to east at about 15 MPH. This storm will deposit about 1 inch of snow. That's a lot better than the 6-1/2 inches that was predicted.  Radar from Weatherunderground.

Here's the snowfall at 7:30pm. Wheaton is in the exact center:

By 9:15pm the storm was moving out of the area and the accumulation was about 1/2 inch: