DuPage County - Second Meeting to Discuss Flooding - February 5, 2015

As announced by Wheaton, January 28, 2015:

This post includes a link to a survey "DuPage County is entering a competition for funding to help communities recover from prior disasters and improve their ability to withstand and recover more quickly from future disasters, hazards and shocks. Reducing current and future risk is essential to the long-term vitality, economic well-being and security of all communities. We need you to assist us in identifying the impacts that you face from flooding. The responses you provide will help us maximize disaster preparedness, save lives and bring benefits to a community long after recovery projects are complete.

The survey will consist of two sets of questions. The first will address flooding and the second will address quality of life."

DuPage County to Hold Second Meeting to Discuss Flooding and Future Resiliency

DuPage County will hold a second public information meeting regarding the creation of an East Branch DuPage River Watershed Resiliency Plan on Thursday, Feb. 5, at 7 p.m. at the Wheaton City Hall, 303 W. Wesley Street. 

In order to better prepare local communities for future extreme weather events, DuPage County is currently creating a resiliency plan for the East Branch Watershed, which encompasses the central portion of DuPage County extending from Addison into Will County. To accomplish this, DuPage County is enlisting the support of local communities to provide information on flooding and quality of life in the area. 

During the public meeting, residents and small business owners will have the opportunity to learn more about this planning process, as well as submit ideas and input that may be incorporated into the plan. In addition, an online survey is available. 

To access the survey, please visit this site:

Clicking will open a  New Window> https://www.surveymonkey.com/s/DPCResilience

Note: The East Branch DuPage River Watershed encompasses a large area, including the Village of Addison, Village of Bloomingdale, Village of Bolingbrook, City of Darien, Village of Downers Grove, Village of Glen Ellyn, Village of Glendale Heights, Village of Lisle, Village of Lombard, Village of Oak Brook, Village of Westmont, City of Wheaton and Village of Woodridge.

College of DuPage Special Meeting - R. Beuder's Severance Package

There is a Special Meeting at the college tonight, January 28, 2015. This has been scheduled by the Board of Trustees of Community College District 502. The purpose is to consider President Robert Breuder's severance package.  I've included a portion of the contents of the Board Member packet with some details of that package later in this post, as well as a link to the January 28 packet for this meeting.

The meeting is scheduled to be held January 28, 7:00PM  in the STUDENT SERVICES CENTER - ROOM SSC-2200, although it may be moved to the MAC.

I encourage anyone who can to attend this meeting. 

Here is some additional information I received. "On January 22 the Board of Trustees of Community College District 502 adopted a severance package for college President Robert Breuder, without giving proper notice or public discussion in compliance with the Illinois Open Meetings Act........Among the reasons the Board of Trustees and Dr. Breuder have offered in the past for conducting so much of the College’s business in secret is the lack of interest and input from the community. It is important that the Board of Trustees sees how seriously we, the community, take their fiduciary obligation to protect the public interest in conducting the business of the College. The one way we can truly convey that is by merely attending the Board of Trustees meeting in order to hold the Board of Trustees accountable.......The very process of observation will remind the Board of the sacred trust that has been given to them by the community and will reinforce their obligations to us, the citizens of District 502."

The Item in the packet pertaining to the Fourth Addendum of Breuder's Employment Contract
"The Fourth Addendum to College President Robert L. Breuder’s Employment Contract a copy of which is attached (“Addendum”) will set an early retirement date for Dr. Breuder of March 31, 2016 rather than June 30, 2019, the end of his current employment contract. In exchange for Dr. Breuder agreeing to end his employment contract earlier than the current June 30, 2019 completion date, the College will
(1) upon Dr. Breuder’s retirement, pay him a lump sum payment of $762,867.77;
(2) upon Dr. Breuder’s retirement, he will receive the retirement benefits provided to all administrators as set forth in the College of DuPage Senior Management Team;
(3) the Board will install a sign on the Homeland Security Education Center consistent with the Board’s action on May 7, 2013, naming the building in Dr. Robert Breuder’s honor;
(4) the Board will grant Dr. Breuder an exception and name Dr. Breuder with “Emeritus” status upon his retirement;
(5) Dr. Breuder will receive no compensation, insurance, or other benefits from the College after March 31, 2016 outside of this Fourth Addendum and the Benefits Summary;
(6) Dr. Breuder agrees to assist the College in recruiting qualified permanent replacement candidates for the positions of Interim College President and College President for the College. Such assistance shall include, but will not be limited to, identification of qualified candidates, assisting the College in assessing the qualifications of candidates and, pursuant to the direction of the Board, communicating with candidates;
(7) the Addendum contains a restriction on Dr. Breuder’s hiring any College staff; and
(8) The Addendum provides that the indemnification provisions contained in Dr. Breuder’s Employment Contract shall continue to apply through the Retirement Date and shall survive the termination of the Employment Contract, including the termination of the Fourth Addendum.

Additional details are contained in the attached Addendum."

Links about this Meeting:

Clicking will open a  New Window> http://www.cod.edu/about/board_of_trustees/pdf/packets/2015jan28packet_spcl.pdf/

Clicking will open a  New Window> http://www.cod.edu/about/board_of_trustees/


Most recent road addition at COD:
Do you remember the zoning meeting about this road addition? If you don't it's because there was no announcement of any meeting.

2015 - Better Cost Accounting - Project Management

The HOA meeting went well. I did make my planning presentation for 2015. My presentation consisted primarily of a 5-page list. It really was a brief presentation. I had included color photos to support some of my concerns and to illustrate what we are planning.

One item which I promoted was better cost accounting for projects. That's a fairly extensive topic, but my primary concern in recent years has been the possible allocation of Operations and Maintenance (O&M) budgets to the completion of reserve tasks. If this occurs it will put pressure on our HOA's O&M budget while increasing our reserve balances beyond what they would otherwise be. I've been talking about this since 2011 and first broached it during a budget meeting. Any regular attendee to our HOA meetings has certainly observed me expressing this.

My Concern in a Nutshell
The inadvertent allocation of O&M funds to capital projects is to be avoided if possible. I am promoting closer monitoring and adjustment if this is observed.

Here is an example of how this can occur. Each year our HOA makes a budget. That budget includes a specific number of maintenance hours. It also includes a sum to be placed in reserves. There is an underlying assumption that all maintenance hours will be expended on maintenance tasks, which will then be paid from the O&M budget. All capital expenditures will be paid from the reserve account. It had been sometimes assumed that all maintenance hours are to be billed to Operations & Maintenance budgets. That assumption is not accurate.

We do use maintenance workers to support some capital project tasks. One example is drainage improvements on the property. Another is stream replacement, entry walks and other work related to new driveways.  Water mains are also handled via the capital (reserve) account because this HOA sets aside a specific amount for this purpose in each year. Water main work includes excavation, plumbing, concrete, asphalt and landscaping.  Some of this work is accomplished using maintenance workers.

Using the "drainage" example, much of the annual drainage improvement is related to the roofing project. If hours spent for drainage work is billed as maintenance it will be paid from the O&M budget. It won't be paid from the reserve account unless it is flagged as part of the capital project. If this occurs those hours will overstate the actual "maintenance" costs for the year while the hours attributable to the reserve account will be understated. Meanwhile, the HOA is obligated to fund the reserves as budgeted.

If this occurs it will create an imbalance in the funding process and the annual O&M accounts will be depleted and overspent. More money will be drawn from the O&M budget and less from the reserves. With a specific O&M annual budget, how is that imbalance to be paid? This is one way a HOA may inadvertently overspend it's annual O&M budget. It is also how a reserve balance may grow and exceed expectations.

It is true that the HOA annual budget is created some months in advance. It is an educated guess and some O&M tasks do come in at less than budgeted. Some additional work may be required.  There may also be surprises such as higher utility costs due to an unanticipated rate increase. Or a milder winter may reduce snow removal costs. Or ice dams and related problems may absorb more maintenance hours. Here's another possibility; our HOA currently does exterior repairs to 1/6 of the buildings on the property each year. That work is done in conjunction with exterior painting and is billed to Operations & Maintenance. It is impossible to predict the exact costs because the precise condition of the exteriors is unknown until this annual work is underway and thorough inspections are made. All of that gingerbread needs to be inspected and some will be replaced, as will some of the building exterior panels and other exterior wood. So too for those lighting posts in front of just about every building. They are also of wood.

The Problem
All work comes from the fees collected. It's all from one "pot" so what's the problem? First, it is a requirement that reserve accounts be segregated from O&M accounts. This can be accomplished physically or via normal accounting procedures. It is normal for maintenance costs to be paid from the O&M accounts. The problem is the possible distortion in the HOA annual expenditures when capital projects are paid via O&M accounts. The work is certainly being done and it will be paid for. The issue is about which internal account is being billed for such work. That is the source of any distortion. As previously stated HOAs with reserve accounts are supposed to use those funds for capital projects and not use them for O&M. However, there is no such restriction placed on O&M funds. The O&M funds can be spent for both reserve and maintenance items. This is not a desired practice, but it can occur. If it does it may overstate maintenance costs while understating capital project costs. The solution can be difficult. It requires separating manhours task by task so they may be properly billed to O&M or Reserves. This is more difficult than it might appear. For example, some maintenance work in any given year might be part of the roofing project (reserve accounts) while other work may not (O&M accounts). This is also true for drainage work.

If such separation doesn't occur in any one year, this might not be a big deal. If O&M funds fuel a portion of the capital projects, well, perhaps it can be corrected next year. However, the budget planning process doesn't look for this. Boards are genuinely concerned about transferring reserve funds to O&M accounts and so this is monitored by management. But the same scrutiny is not normally applied to the opposite, because there is no statutory prohibition for transfer of O&M money to reserve accounts. In other words, it is possible to expend O&M budgets on capital projects.  Of course, budgets are periodically reviewed throughout the year. If manhours are exceeded, the budget for the following year may be increased. That is the source of my concern. Over a period of years larger distortions can be created and that is a possible problem. It can put boards under pressure to increase O&M budgets and it can create larger than anticipated reserve balances. If not identified this situation will distort fees. If not recognized then reserves may grow and fees may increase to make up for any inadvertent transfer of O&M funds to reserve accounts.

A Solution
Recognizing the possibility that this problem might exist is a key element. This problem was identified several years ago and this HOA has shifted from automatic allocation of maintenance hours to O&M funds to the allocation of hours where identified as such to capital projects. However, this process increased overhead for contractors and management. It can be tedious. Nevertheless it is necessary and must be done.

Good tracking of maintenance hours for capital projects is essential. Only by doing so can we be assured that capital projects are being properly funded and paid for via reserves.

It's interesting, but this may be a consequence of board emphasis over the years on balancing O&M budgets. There is a desire to keep fees as low as possible, and with that, the need is created for tight budgets. After all, every excess dollar comes from owners' fees. So no one wants any excess to be collected. Over the years, there has been a lot of attention paid to O&M expenditures. However, with the aging of the infrastructure of our HOA there have been substantial increases in capital projects. Ten years ago, we weren't replacing streets, roofs, driveways and garage floors. Some of these are capital items to be paid from reserve accounts. Nearly all capital projects requires some involvement by maintenance. Our O&M annual budgets have been reasonably stable, as I have published in earlier posts. Meanwhile, our annual capital expenditures have "gone through the roof'" (pun intended).

I also suspect this problem has been aggravated by the shear volume of capital projects in recent years. This was an unintended consequence of delaying some projects as long as possible. So in 2014 we did eight roofs, which required drainage work, entrance work, attic work, ventilation work, and so on. Much of that roofing support work was done by maintenance workers. That same year a major bridge was replaced and some stream repairs were undertaken.

A change in method can also contribute to funding mis-allocation. For example, our HOA has about a third of a mile of walks and has a reserve category for these. In the past, the solution to uneven walks was to replace sections and this was done from the proper reserve category. However, our HOA is now employing "concrete grinding" or scarifying to deal with shifting blocks and cracks. If this work is done as part of normal annual maintenance it will use O&M budget hours. But this was never before considered a maintenance item and all such concrete work was budgeted via reserves because it was considered replacement.

Is this a serious problem? Well, I'd suggest it has been identified as a potential problem. I would also say it's something that needs to be managed. As is true of all things in a HOA, doing this requires manhours. Time is not free and boards are not professional staffers. If it is to be done, then someone must do it. Our HOA closely monitors the overall O&M and annual capital (reserve) expenditures. We want to be assured that work is being done that it is being properly billed by all suppliers and contractors. The annual audits clarify how much is actually being spent from year to year and the annual budget process compares the previous year's expenditures to the actual expenditures. These provide a portion of the needed information.

What remains to be determined each year is percent completion and it's opposite which is percent incompletion. This information can then be compared to percent funds expended and percent remaining. That's essential to determining if near term (5-year) capital budget projections are realistic. If this is not done it is impossible to determine if we accomplished the tasks for the anticipated costs. For example, if the cost of roofs were to increase 15% it would be important to apply that to anticipated costs for all of the remaining roofs. It might also be necessary to adjust the funding plan if this did occur. The opposite situation is also to be considered. If roofs are on track for completion at 15% less than projected, then it might be possible to allocate those freed-up funds to other capital projects, or reduce the collection of fees for reserves.

These things are discussed during open session of our HOA meetings. Doing so keeps the entire board and owners informed. It also is part of the knowledge base which allows the board to consider annual budget adjustments.

Conclusion
If there is a problem, it is this. Boards strive to adhere to a reserve funding plan. It's important to track maintenance hours expended and capital project hours expended, separate them and see that these bills are paid from the proper accounts.

The reserve funding plan is balanced against anticipated annual expenditures. It's important to keep track of what has been completed in accordance with the plan and what has not been completed. It is also important to keep track of reserve balances and how they occurred. Finally it is really important to review funding versus expenditures at frequent intervals, and I prefer an annual review.  Doing so can be difficult. Who is to do this? Architecture & Maintenance, or the Treasures and Management? I suggest it takes all of these to accomplish this.

It is also one more in a very long list of tasks to be done and it will be prioritized but it can also be displaced by other issues. Owners may have their own agenda and some could care less about the difficulties their HOA has in balancing all of these tasks. This HOA has one two-hour meeting per month. The board and management must decide in that two hour period how to proceed. I look at it this way. In one year, our HOA has about 24 hours of planning and preparation time via open meetings so a handful of owners can attend. Such open meetings are required. I ask the reader this question. Could you create an annual program, oversee it, and do a really, really good job during 24 hours of open meetings each year? In that 24 hours this HOA will oversee the expenditure of about $1.5million to $2million. During those meetings owners will attend with their list of personal issues. Some are important, some are trivial. No matter. We each get our due.

This is why many professionals recommend reserve study plan updates every five years.  It is why our HOA decided to fund an update in 2014. Pay the professionals to do their best and then decide how to proceed. However, budgets are created annually. We obviously can't wait five years to adjust budgets for reserve expenditures. Better project management and cost accounting controls are beneficial. I don't think anyone will argue the contrary. That said, I also think that not many will come forth with a realistic and reasonable method to do this "while keeping fees as low as possible." Telling the HOA Board to spend more time and to "do more" is not a solution.


Comment
If the task in the conclusion seems difficult or impossible, I suggest the reader consider that the Illinois Condominium Act which requires this was enacted by the same lawmakers who have turned Illinois into a zombie (walking dead) financial state. These lawmakers couldn't balance their own home budgets if it weren't for the generous salaries, perks and double dipping pensions they awarded themselves.

Unfortunately, they didn't apply such generous financial rules to the thousands of HOAs in Illinois. In fact, via SB2664 they attempted to kill condominiums in Illinois.

2015 - Another Year to Plan

It's a new year and so we will have a new plan. This is a natural occurrence in a HOA, isn't it? Boards come and go and new members join. Plans are made but don't always come to fruition in the time anticipated. Sometimes the can is kicked down the road. The hat too!

2014 was like that. Some things planned did not occur. Some things unplanned did occur. The plan was adhered to with adjustments.

Each year can seem to be starting over. Sometimes the HOA gets a reset. That's what occurred in 2007-8 when a new board came to power. Simultaneously there was an economic meltdown. Not quite a great depression, but close. For a time the combination gave us chaos, However, time waits for no one. Reality is an interesting phenomenon. We, as human beings can promote anything we want. Politicians can obfuscate and confuse and misdirect. At some point in time reality will intervene. "We have enough money" will be either proven or disproved. The actual condition of infrastructure will reveal itself. The finances will become apparent. When these things occur then it will really be time to pay the piper. (Note 1).

That's the way it is in HOAs. Do you think I'm kidding? I know people in other HOAs. Some here in the midwest, some on the east coast and some elsewhere. Some live in HOAs of 20 units, others in large HOAs. Some live in high rise buildings, some in HOAs on the shore. Owners in each of these are pretty consistent. They do what they can to keep their personal fees low and avoid long term planning. The desire seems to be to move on before the bill comes due. This is often wishful thinking. (Note 2).

After a lot of soul searching this HOA decided to open "Pandora's Box" to quote a former manager. So about 5 years ago we finally got a serious and far reaching reserve study. Some things take 35 years to accomplish. That study was flawed and it took a redo to get one that made sense. It wasn't pleasant. So it is with things we avoid. That study is being honed and improved. It's a continuous process, like a road trip. We may have our plan but at each leg of our journey we see how far we have come, how much further we have to go, what it took to get where we are and what are the future conditions. (Note 3).

Yes, we can pretend that we know the future, but we don't. Financial planning is really about cash flow. A HOA may pretend it knows the future and avoid doing the things to reveal what it truly so. However, as the clock ticks the infrastructure ages. The future bills, those required by the infrastructure will accrue. Eventually they do come due and woe to the owner who thinks otherwise.

That's the point of all of this planning. To generate an income stream and savings which balances the costs of maintaining the HOA. It's time for our board to discuss the details for 2015.

Tonight, after a one-week delay
Tonight at the first association meeting of 2015 I'll present to the board and any owners in attendance the state of architecture and projects. It is a 5 page list, larger because of photos. Just a summary and incomplete, at that.

It is a work in progress, which I began in 2005, some years prior to achieving a seat on the board. Some things on that original list have been completed or are nearing completion. I include the roofing project, although it may be another three years before that is completed. We have eight large and three smaller roofs waiting. Too much to complete in one year, but certainly these can be completed within three (2015-2017).

However, in this game of catch-up, new problems occur at a pace more rapid than old ones are completed. No driveways were replaced in 2014, nor were any garage floors. It is a fact our infrastructure is aging, As we approach 40 years of age, some of that is accelerating. We lost about 35 large trees last year. There will be more.

That acceleration is the primary reason some things are deferred each year. There are plans and then there is reality. Reality can alter priorities.

Plans and Reality
The plans can be made each year, and they are. Those plans paint a picture which is limited by time and money and other realities. By reality, I mean the unexpected failures that do occur each year. Water main breaks is one such example.  Time available each year to accomplish what is contained in the plans is another.

A few years ago, there was a plan afoot in our HOA to take out a very large mortgage and do it all "at once." This does not stop the clock. It resets some parts but other aspects of the HOA will continue to age. Can we do it all in one or two years? Is it possible to complete the roofs, replace the streets, replace garage floors and remaining driveways as well as the entrances? We did eight roofs last year and about one-half of Lakecliffe Drive. This was a major disruption for residents. The roofing project was delayed to keep contractor vehicles off the property and free as much street parking as possible. The roofs were completed as temperatures fell below 50F. It was very, very difficult. We have about 80% of our streets to do over the next 5 years or so. Think about it.

Each year, this HOA collects fees and allocates them to Operations, Maintenance and Reserves. Reserves are collected in anticipation of capital projects. Most important is the period from today to 10 years hence. We surely have a good idea of the condition of infrastructure and needed repairs 2015-2024, don't we? If we don't then I suggest the question to ask is "Why don't we?"

Of course, everything can't be anticipated. Nor is there any desire to do so. We don't know the precise weather in 2015. We don't now the cost of utilities in 2015. We don't know precisely which garages, driveways and roofs will actually be replaced in 2015. We don't know how many foreclosures will occur in 2015, in any; these things sap the budget. And so on.

Why not? We don't have a crystal ball. Nor can I state with any certainty precisely which roofs will be replaced in 2015. I can say that recent boards have made it a commitment to replace roofs before failure. But it remains for the current board to decide what to do in 2015.

Dealing with Limitations
A few years ago this HOA found itself in a difficult place. A multi-year roofing project had been begun and simple arithmetic revealed to me, a mere owner, that we had a serious cash flow problem coming our way. While I do think some of this can be avoided and should be, I also do think there are limitations to planning.

I think it could be argued that in a HOA there will never be enough money. Why do I say this? Is it because of a lack of planning? Is it because of unforeseen circumstance? Is it because of owner pressure? Is it  because of the boards?

I'd suggest that it is because of all of the above. I'd suggest that with proper planning it is possible to have sufficiency with limitations. Our reality here has revealed that low fees may be a mirage. That of course would cause one to ask "What are appropriate fees?"

The answer to that question is why we do this annual planning and do attempt to keep current with maintenance and capital projects. Delaying capital projects can inflate the reserve balances as money is collected and saved, but not spent. That's one of the reasons our reserve balance at the end of 2014 was about $650,000 greater than planned. Another was cost accounting and a third was some projects coming in under budget. In fact, that reserve balance includes a sizable expenditure for a street replacement in 2014 that wasn't planned to occur until 2020 or so; if that street replacement had not occurred the reserve balance would be even greater than it is.

The replacement of Lakecliffe is my poster child for reality. Yes, owners can argue for lower fees and put in place boards to do just that. Boards may get a reserve study. Yet, the infrastructure may not age in accordance with our wants. It is a near certainty that the current street project will be completed before it should even have begun, if we look at the plan that existed in 2010.

The Ultimate Challenge. 
As HOAs age, there comes a time when really serious infrastructure replacement becomes necessary. That boiler I mentioned is an example, Our water mains are another. However, there is a problem.

How far into the future should a HOA plan? For example, how many years distant before entire buildings may require replacement? When and at what cost? That is the dilemma. What's reasonable and what is not? Not everyone will like the answers to that question, and there are multiple answers.

Collecting money for far distant issues may seem prudent. But is it? Consider this. Accruing reserves for something that may happen in 30 years will result in larger reserve balances. Add that to human nature and I ask this question. "What assurance do owners have that money collected for a specific purpose will be spent that way?" The answer might be unsettling, because there is no assurance. The history here at BLMH indicates that some owners will do anything to keep fees as low as possible. Lower than required for infrastructure repair and replacement.

That means that accumulating $millions in reserves will create a temptation for some. That $1,500,000 balance some will say is "enough money" and our fees are too high. Is $2 million a lot of money? Yes it is, but it's a drop in the bucket for the maintenance requirements of 336. It may seem like a lot, but in fact it is less than $6000 savings per owner. That's an amount barely sufficient for an owner to buy a new fireplace and take a nice vacation. It's not sufficient for a new furnaces and HVAC system. Or a simple kitchen do-over. And that is my point. It will take $hundreds of thousands to replace our streets, finish the roofs, deal with masonry issues and so on.

The challenge for boards is to collect and save amounts for reasonable reserves while developing plans for infrastructure replacement. And to do so while keeping owners and future boards from destroying those plans for short term gain. When some owners see large balances they are inclined to think "I could do a lot with that money." (Note 4). It's useful for owners to do a little arithmetic. Multiply the cost of replacing one medium sized driveway by 84, or the cost of one roof by 82. Or one garage floor by 84. Only then does one get a realistic idea of the true costs facing their HOA.

It is a challenge. Overshoot (collect too much) and current owners might argue they are being penalized. Undershoot (save too little) and special assessments or large fee increases become inevitable. Some avoid reality.

Notes.
1. Timing of owners can sometimes be terrible. Throwing out a knowledgeable board at a time when there are rising delinquencies, foreclosures and reserve issues to contend with was not one of our more brilliant moments here at BLMH. However, there will always be a few owners who will argue their personal position while planning their escape. 2008 made that difficult. It forced most owners to come to terms with some realities.

2. Some of those whom I know in other HOAs admit they have low fees and even lower reserves. Not all have low fees. For example, a large multi-story building with a doorman and $20,000 in reserves. Owners want that benefit and prefer it to reserves. Another HOA recently gave the owners a $20,000 special assessment to replace an aging boiler.  Another did the same to replace windows. Not all had low fees. The one with the window replacement assessed about $20,000 on top of the monthly fee of $450. These numbers may seem large, and they are. $20,000 is equivalent to my entire fee here for 5 years. In other words, such a special assessment would effectively double my fees for 5 years. Now that's an incentive to get it right for all of us.

3. I was very apprehensive when the board announced the plan to go for a reserve study. I was even more apprehensive after watching the contractor selection process. I took the manager's caution about "Pandora's Box" quite seriously. After all I had been running my own numbers using the stuff tossed out by the boards. I knew it would not be pleasant and I was reasonably certain there would be some "bad news." However, owners need to be made aware was my position and so I let go of my apprehension. Besides, the residential real estate implosion had already wreaked havoc on values and so how much worse could it really become? Referring to that allegorical road trip,  I have always found it interesting that many of us will spend more time watching the weather on TV than on doing our financial and future planning. Should we be surprised if the results are less than wonderful?

4. I've read and heard some real horror stories. Some HOAs have problems which become so severe they are unsolvable. There will always be a temptation to kick the can down the road. Some owners will experience personal misfortune and hardship. If a HOA acquiesces to the needs of those who are experiencing financial difficulties, then future problems are created. I have yet to read of any solution to the "kick the can down the road" situation in HOAs in which future fees did not increase significantly or there were no special assessments.  Each HOA faces a choice. Build a future or destroy it.

Natural Gas Prices Continue to Fall

Utility costs have been on the rise. For example, electricity and water rates. However, natural gas prices have fallen since October, 2014.  Prices rose to a peak of $4.50 per million BTU in November, but are currently $2.93 per million BTU.

According to an article in the Wall Street Journal "plunging temperatures are a cue for traders to make bullish bets because the resulting spike in demand can deplete natural-gas supplies. Last February, prices jumped by more than 30% in a matter of days during one particularly severe cold snap." However that isn't happening so far this year. Why is that? The article continues "The usual seasonal rally hasn't materialized because many analysts believe gas supplies are high enough to get through even a brutal winter with plenty to spare. Daily gas production has set a record for 11 straight months,"

Will this mean a low natural gas bill next month? Probably not. "Changes in natural-gas futures prices can take months to trickle down to heating bills. Most natural gas customers buy from utilities, which contract for most of their fuel months in advance."

Later in the year we may see a price decrease (cost per therm) in our natural gas bill. But probably not until then. However, for the past two years my natural gas bill has been very steady, averaging $50 per month for gas heat, cooking and hot water.  Nicor Gas has been encouraging me to reduce my monthly payment to $39 but I've kept it steady at $50 after looking at my account credit. I'm on a budget plan which charges me full price for gas used, but does allow me to pay an average amount per month. This plan is supposed to keep my monthly budget steady.

I never allow my credit to go to zero and I always stay ahead. Why? To avoid any finance charges. Nicor Gas supposedly pays interest on any credit. Nicor Gas does charge interest on unpaid balances. So Nicor would probably prefer my "budget" be close to zero credit. That''s my assumption when the bill indicated I only owe a budget amount of $39 but my annual costs is about $600, which is $50 per month.

Association Meeting is Postponed

The association meeting scheduled for tonight has been postponed. Notices are being posted in the buildings.

Schools Emergency Closing Center

The cold weather pattern will continue for several days. Perhaps you have tired of the intermittent and incomplete school closing information provided on the TV news channels.

For general information here is a website operated by WGN Radio which I have found to be useful. Of course, going to the school district website is the best way to get 100% reliable information about a school. Other organizations may also use this, including park districts. However, registration at the site for schools, park districts, and other non-profits is $25 per year. In other words, the information is provided voluntarily by the organizations who register.

Nevertheless, this is a good source, and here is a link to the home page, in accordance with the sites "terms and conditions":

Clicking will open a  New Window> Emergency Closing Center

I'd Rather be There, Perhaps or Perhaps Not!

I'm posting this to provide contrast. Let me simply say this. Going to a warmer, subtropical clime as we did last winter will provide a wonderful contrast.  Some ask me why I purchased a camper-van. The answer I leave to another post, but if you are curious, you can go to my travel blog by clicking the following link. Let me say this; life is short. I think it is best to make the most of it and make a contribution where one can:

Clicking will open a  New Window> roadtrekking

Regarding the weather, no where is perfect. There will be issues, problems, storms and so on no matter where we live in the U.S. However, this country is so diverse and so broad, it is wise to take advantage of what it offers.  It is also wise to do so while we are fit, able, and can afford to do so.

We make choices in life. I suggest we make them well, consider the consequences of our actions and then make the best of the consequences.

Some of my neighbors, my fellow residents here at BLMH complain about the ice and snow in our winters. I suggest we enjoy these things and if they become unbearable, then travel to avoid them when we can. My late uncle relocated from the Chicago area to Clearwater, FL. When I visited him near the end of his life I asked him if he missed anything by living in Florida. He said "I really miss the change in seasons. I miss the fresh dew of spring and the dry crackle of leaves underfoot in the fall." To Uncle Rollie I say "rest in peace." To my neighbors at BLMH I say "Enjoy the seasons and the trees, walks and streams on our property. Enjoy all of our seasons"   This winter is one of many blessings. It will epitomize the "change" so many clamor for. So enjoy it. If you find the cold difficult and want a walk, then go to the walking track at Wheaton's Rice park complex which is about 5-10 minutes away. Go to Arrowhead Golf Club (another Wheaton benefit) and have a lunch.

Winter is an opportunity. I suggest we approach it as such.

Breaking News, or Hype?

Update January 7, 7:00am
The current temperature is -2 and the windchill is -13F. Many schools are closed in the area. One reason is to prevent children from standing in these temperatures while waiting for a bus. Cold, but not quite that predicted, and about the same as yesterday morning at this time  As seems the usual these weather predictions provide the "worst case" situation, This pattern of highs below 15-20F will continue until Saturday.

Original Post
I received an eail from the Glen Ellyn "Patch" this afternoon. The subject line read "BREAKING NEWS: WEATHER ALERT: Hour-by-Hour: Our Plummet to 30/35 Below (Tue 2:12:08 PM)"

Well, what's so? The current (4:30pm) forecast at Weatherunderground is "Clouds early, some clearing late. Lows overnight -8 to -4F".

That's about the same low as last night. So what gives?

Well, I suspect it's all about the hype. Same as the TV weather news, which is designed to get one to stay glued to the boob tube so one will watch all of those commercials. I wonder what Skilling will be saying tonight over at WGN TV? My guess? He'll take ten minutes or so to tell us "It will be very cold tonight."

Now, there is no question that -8F is bitterly cold, and the wind chill is currently -9F.

But we will be above the record low temperature for this date of -17F which was set last year. Global warming? Really? [This is now described as "Climate Change" to cover any and all contingencies.]

The Green Flag is Up

Two posts in one day.
The red flag is up at the park across the street, so the ice skating area isn't ready yet. However, with this weather it won't be long and the green flag will be up, signalling the skating area is ready for skating and solid.

This year, I may again take the ice skates out of the closet and don them.  For me it's all about timing. I need to be here at a time when the ice is good and the temperatures cold, but not too cold. With frequent business travel and other commitments it is difficult to break free during the day and skate my concerns away.

Here's the same area last year and the green flag was definitely up. It is clearly visible in the first photo. G was tossing a snowball as I snapped this photo:

Cold Weather Condo Living

Well, this morning it was darn chilly outside. Nary a squirrel in sight. I kicked the thermostat up to 72F to get the condo well heated. Of course, with the predicted cold the kitchen cabinet under the sink was left open to allow heat to enter. That sink is on an outside wall and this is one of the winter tips which the association provides to residents each year. It's prudent to read those tips and use them.

I've never had a pipe freezing issue, and the temperature in my condo is normally set at 68F. So I guess I'm doing something right.

This morning after I shoveled around my car, one of the neighbors offered to help me. I declined but perhaps next time. We only got about 2 inches of light snow last night and I had very little to shovel this morning. Several days ago I scraped a good portion of the driveway and salted the drive and entrance. We had freezing rain followed by a dip in temperatures and about 1/2 inch of snow.

Not much so far this year.

Breakfast and a Walk
We decided to go to the Park District indoor track to get a good walk/jog in this morning.  I snapped the morning photo on the masthead while the coffee was brewing. I was up making a breakfast of Farina and a pot of coffee for me and ginger tea (fresh ginger) for G. Then we were off to the track. Life is good.

Just for chuckles, here is the current 10-day weather forecast from Weatherunderground.

The Squirrels Go Marching, One By One

Early this morning I looked out the window and observed the family of grey squirrels going about their morning forage. One ran by with what appeared to be a Ritz cracker in his jaws. I guess he got his morning treat from one of the residents. I simply wasn't fast enough with the camera to get a snapshot. Here's one of his siblings, sans cracker.

Winter really has arrived and tonight it will go to -5F or so. Brrr!

It's snowing lightly but will get much colder tonight with approximately 1 inch of snow. 

Here's the http://www.wunderground.com/  10-Day Weather Forecast:

More Condo Cold Weather Cooking - Easy Beef Stew

Salad and Beef Stew

When the weather turns cold, I find there is a desire for what G and I call "Comfort Food."

Here is a recipe I created for an easy to prepare and hearty beef stew. This prepares a sufficient amount for several meals and we freeze most of it to reheat and serve over the next 30 days. I've found that some recipes do well in the freezer and flavors actually improve. This stew is, in my opinion, one of them.

This is an easy recipe. However, I prefer to marinate and brown the meat. I prepare and heat some of the vegetables to add flavor and give them a start prior to adding to a crock pot.

Preparation time is about one hour. Most of that is spent waiting for the ingredients to simmer or brown. Crock pot cooking time is about 3-1/2 to 4 hours.

Step 1 Prepare a marinade of 50% soy sauce and 50% Worcestershire sauce, with parsley leaves. Dried parsley works well for this.

Step 2: Add beef stew meat and allow to marinate. Mix well so the beef is completely coated with the marinade. I used 3 lbs.of beef for this recipe. Adjust per personal preference.

Step 3: While the beef is marinading, prepare and saute onions in a couple of tablespoons of olive oil. I use pepper and a bit of sea salt to season. I'm using a 6 Qt Club Aluminum dutch oven handed down to me by my mother. I suspect it is 70 years old:

Step 4: As the onions begin to change from translucent to clear, but before they can caramelize add the marinated beef to the sauteed onions. Save any excess marinade as it will be used later as part of the sauce, as shown in the photo below:

Step 5: After adding the beef to the onions brown the beef over medium heat, turning frequently:

Step 6: While the beef is browning scrub and slice about 6 carrots. I do not peel the carrots as many vitamins and nutrients exist in the skins of vegetables. Use your preference. Also scrub and cut 6 or more stalks (single ribs) of celery and add to the carrots. Once the beef is browned add the carrots and celery to the dutch over. To this add one large can (28 oz.) of peeled tomatoes. Add any left over marinade. Blend and continue heating:

Step 7: For a little extra zest, add a tablespoon of your favorite chili powder. For less zest, reduce to one or two teaspoons:

Step 7: Once the stew is simmering, turn off the heat and transfer everything from the dutch oven to the crock pot. Put the crock pot on the high heat setting:

Step 8:  Prepare the potatoes.  Potato selection is important, as some potatoes cook down and become mushy. That's a good thing if preparing minestra, but not desired for this stew. I used Green Giant Klondike Rose potatoes in this recipe. Most red skinned potatoes will do:

Step 9: Scrub the potatoes, cut off any "eyes" or damaged areas and cut into slices. For large potatoes, cut into sections. Place the potatoes in a colander to rinse and drain.  Add a tablespoon or two of olive oil to the dutch oven, some pepper and a little salt. Heat and then add the prepared potatoes. Cook over medium heat, toss frequently for even heating:

Step 10: After the potatoes have taken on the flavoring of the oil and spices and begin to brown it is time to move them to the crock pot.

Step 10: Transfer the potatoes to the crock pot. If you've got the proper proportions the pot will be nearly full and there will be sufficient liquid:

Step 11: Cover the crock pot and cook on high. Stir about once every 20-30 minutes. This is what the stew will look like after cooking for an hour and one-half:

Step 12: After a total cooking time of 3-1/2 to 4 hours, the stew should be done. Using a fork, check the potatoes and carrots for doneness:

Step 13: Turn off the crock pot and set aside a bowl of the stew to cool and then take a taste test. Bon Appetit!