Updated Surplus Numbers

Updated Surplus Numbers
Updated Surplus Numbers: Actual surplus 2018 per audit was $85,163.
Boards 2011-2018 implemented policies and procedures with specific goals:
stabilize owner fees, achieve maintenance objectives and achieve annual budget surpluses.
Any surplus was retained by the association.
The board elected in fall 2018 decided to increase owner fees, even in view of a large potential surplus

Average fees prior to 2019

Average fees prior to 2019
Average fees per owner prior to 2019:
RED indicates the consequences had boards continued the fee policies prior to 2010,
BLUE indicates actual fees. These moderated when better policies and financial controls were put in place by boards

Better budgeting could have resulted in lower fees

Better budgeting could have resulted in lower fees
Better budgeting could have resulted in lower fees:
RED line = actual fees enacted by boards,
BLUE line = alternate, fees, ultimately lower with same association income lower had
boards used better financial controls and focused on long term fee stability

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Cleaning Up After Rain and Ice Dams - Salt Shortage

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Now that the freezing rain has moved on we and neighboring communities are cleaning up. Some of this cleanup is required because of the unusual snowfall, extreme cold, the freeze-thaw and of course the rain that followed.

Streets everywhere in our area are clean, but are a pothole mess. It's been reported that nearby Chicago has 100,000 potholes and on January 17, 2014 Chicago launched the "Pothole Tracker" website. Here's an image of some of the potholes reported as patched in the last 7 days:


Wheaton and Glen Ellyn have nothing to compare to that website. Of course, BLMH doesn't have one either. We don't have a tax base of 27,000 (GE) or 53,000 (Wheaton). Instead we have the fees of 336. 

24 Days and Counting
That's the number of days remaining until Spring. We can expect freezing weather and even a possibility of snow until about April 12. I'm using personal experience to arrive at that date. That's another 47 days. We can expect more snow, more thaw and more heaving of streets in the area. As I drove down Park Ave in Glen Ellyn this morning the water department was digging. It looked like another broken water main.

When the ground begins to thaw and the frost dissipates, there will be additional heaving and more water main breaks. That will signal the welcoming of Spring. 

In the mean time, what to do?

Repairs and Salt Shortage
Our management and maintenance are empowered by the board to take the necessary steps. When we saw the extent of the icing we knew there would be some problems. One goal is to protect roofs, so the units remain dry. However, when things do go wrong, the primary goal is to handle issues that impact units. Leaks in foyers (the air-locked entryway) is secondary. An important goal is to also take care of issues in garages. We want structures to keep residents warm, dry and comfortable.

I can understand the nervousness if there is any sign of a roof leak. I've experienced a failure of a chimney cap and it was during a very, very rainy April. The concern of a resident in a roof leak situation might include "How serious is this?" "Will the leak become worse?" "Will my possessions be damaged?" "Will I have to vacate my unit?" and so on. Sometimes we may think of the worst possible situation. In fact, the worst case seldom occurs.

Some owners may become upset by a leak. "My problem is the most important" is one possible thought that is driving each of us.  However, our management is capable as are the maintenance professionals. Speaking for myself and as a board member, I want to know that we're on top of the situation, whatever it is, and that we are operating responsibly, pro-actively and if possible in accordance to an agreed upon plan. I really want to avoid being a reaction or being at the effect of things. So I look upon every winter storm and every problem from the place of "what if?" I then attempt to anticipate and if necessary I then discuss with the professionals. Once I am confident with the plan I am comfortable to let them do their jobs which includes making the necessary decisions. However, being uncomfortable is no excuse for interfering.

Boards are supposed to discuss issues and decisions in an open forum which is during the monthly HOA meeting. When there is a problem some owners will attempt to contact me and advise me of problems or their issues. I think being kept informed is well and good. However, as a board member I really cannot intervene beyond asking the necessary questions and then discussing with management and maintenance "What are we doing about this situation and are you aware of it?" I find it interesting that some owners will call or email, demand immediate action and yet, if the board is even suspected of operating beyond the view of the entire owner body, then "we are not transparent." Yes, there is a double standard.

Obviously, my approach with management, maintenance and the owners requires some trust. A board member who is distrustful may actually do more harm than good because of false or deceitful communications, obfuscation, withholding and so on. I think there is nothing worse than setting traps or operating irresponsibly. Nor is bullying a valid approach; this is 2014 and we are all very familiar with domination and manipulation techniques. Good intentions are insufficient. When the going gets tough, it is essential that everyone becomes aligned. That is not possible for some. Owners who act solely in their own interests are a real problem. Board members can be another. When mistrust exists it may be impossible to build a foundation for positive action.

Is the current situation perfect? No, it never is. Is there a double standard among owners? Yes there is. Some expect immediate attention and ignore all others in the HOA. Some don't pay their fees in a timely manner. So what? When things to wrong, the association responds. No one asks "Is this owner current" or checks a list. All owners are equal, no matter how delinquent or how disagreeable. Nor does it matter if one is a member of the proper "club." HOAs need to prepare for these types of problems and avoid being a reaction. Each building is to be protected, each address is to be maintained uniformly and fairly. Is this an impossible task? Possibly. We can predict likelihoods. But as I said, it is a double standard. Tom Skilling can provide lousy weather forecasting, which we attempt to use to make decisions and when the weather turns and we make the wrong decision Mr. Skilling provides long winded excuses and the people love it. HOAs do a far better job even with this misinformation and yet the board gets rotten tomatoes. For his reward Tom Skilling gets paid through 2022 as "possibly the highest paid weatherman" with a million dollar salary and a 12 person staff. Go figure! But he is such a warm and personable guy! Hey Tom, come on over and coffee klatch with us! We have a few owners who go for the fluff.

Immediate Steps
One thing to do with a thaw is to repair any damage and dry things out. Another is to deal with the remaining ice dams. Another is to do a thorough inspection of entrances, foyers, garages and so on. Yet another is to look at the worst of the potholes and decide how to deal with that. Looking ahead, another is to replenish salt and calcium chloride inventories. That is if we can get any. The State and municipalities have done their best to commandeer available supplies. For example, Glen Ellyn has insufficient storage and so they too have dipped into their "emergency" consignment and I understand are now purchasing. In other words, we compete with the State and local municipalities on the open market to purchase salt and calcium chloride. Who would win should GE offer to purchase 600 tons, ot BLMH offer to purchase 1 ton. I'll give you one guess. 

The High Price of Rock Salt
You may recall that Glen Ellyn (GE) decided that they needed more salt storage. In November 2013 the trustees of that village debated the necessity of spending up to $800,000 to increase salt storage because going on the market in winter is an expensive thing to do. The village does have an emergency contract but that may not provide sufficient salt or calcium chloride.  Prices in the summer contracts were about $53 a ton and the GE winter contract agreed to purchase if necessary an additional 600 tons at $54 a ton. After that, any additional salt is purchased on the spot market. In other words, GE is our competitor for purchase. This winter, with shortages and bidding for salt from communities everywhere, prices have been reported to be as high as $240 per ton and one may have to ship from Iowa. Of course, salt might be available in bags, but that is usually at a much, much higher price per ton. Rock salt is not the preferred ice melt because it only works as low as 5F and can be corrosive. Calcium chloride is preferred because it works to as low as -25F. I sometimes use the word "salt" to describe both, but the prices are lower for rock salt. 

Rock salt in 50 lb. bags is usually about $7 a bag, or $280 a ton. Of course, delivery is extra. Prices have increased because of heavy demand and calcium chloride was recently available in 50 lb. bags for about $22 or $880 a ton. 

BLMH stores a minimum of salt or calcium chloride on the property. Our contractors store most of it. With one small shed on the property and owner ambivalence or downright hostility to increasing such storage, I doubt any board will allocate the funds for an "emergency stockpile" here on the property. I say that because no one wants any sort of shed "in my backyard" to paraphrase one of the owners. However, if our snow plowing company does run out this winter, we may be in a situation where the board will have to authorize an emergency purchase. At a cost of 4 to 8 times normal,  that would require a significant expenditure. Additional storage might be preferable to avoid such high cost in the future and possible icing if we do run out. The board may consider this to avoid a similar situation in 2015 and beyond. However, none of us can predict the future. 2007 and 2008 were high useage years. The winter of 2012-13 was a low useage year. So who knows? I would think that if winters are going to be milder in general, then we can expect more winter transitions from below freezing to above freezing and with that comes more need for ice and snow melt. But who really knows?  

Ice Dams and Damage
We have had some damage because of the ice dams. The weather warmed, but not enough to clear out all of the ice and that 5 inches of snow that fell immediately prior to the melt. Our HOA has raked the roofs several times this winter and cleared gutters. After the most recent snowfall it was able to clear a lot of these dams and rake snow but not all. There had been a scramble to get a 60 ft. lift on the property to aid in raking those high roof eaves and clearing dams. That was in addition to the short reach lift which is used for roofs above garages. But the respite was too short, we got 5 inches of fresh snow a brief melt and then the rain fell. 

Do ice dams always cause damage? No. So why did we experience some damage? The ice in this photo is an ice dam and behind it is 5 inches of fresh snow.

Those icicles are the tip of the iceberg. The problem is not the icicles. It is the ice behind the icicles and some of that is under the snow and is not visible. This photo was taken the morning after the 5 inch snowfall and melting was occurring. That creates more ice and longer icicles which freeze upon contact with colder air or when temperatures fall at night. Clearing the icicles and raking the snow is one way to allow the dam to clear. Using high pressure to cut these is another technique that can be used.  However, these techniques require some assistance from the weather and can be even more difficult to achieve on high roofs. With increased difficulty comes higher costs. 

Here's a roof which had been partially raked. Beneath that snow there may be ice. The only way to determine how much ice is present is to rake, and there are limitations to the amount of raking that can be done. We can't very well clear entire roofs. The gutter has an ice dam which was formed when the melting snow hit the cold gutter. It then froze and as more and more water ran down the roof it struck the ice and it too froze:


When ice forms on roofs it prevents water from melting and running down the roof. Instead, the melting snow from above flows down the roof until it reaches snow and it then cools to form ice. Or, the water flows until it reaches any existing ice and then it stops. That is why ice on roofs is called an "ice dam." After most of the snow cleared, a sheet of ice was visible on some roofs:

What to do next? If most of the ice dam has thawed then additional calcium chloride carefully applied will be helpful. However, with low nighttime temperatures any melted ice may flow to the gutters but can re-freeze. It's a "do your best" situation. To add to the complexity a shortage of calcium chloride may require careful thought about how much to use and where. That is the precise situation currently facing many homes and HOAs in the area.

Salting Roofs?
Throwing rock salt on roofs is to be discouraged. It can attack the roof and change the color of the shingles. It may also contribute to corrosion of aluminum gutters. However, judicious use is something I'm personally in favor of and the careful sprinkling of rock salt along the ice atop gutters will help the melting. However, simply throwing rock salt on roofs is to be discouraged. Calcium chloride is the melting agent of preference. In a HOA, doing these things is best left to professionals.

Immediate removal of snow from gutters is one way to avoid some ice dams. However, that isn't always possible.

Do Ice Dams Always Result in Problems?
Ice dams prevent the water created by melting roof snow from flowing to the gutters and beyond. Instead the water flows down the roof until it reaches the ice. At that point it will stand and will flow under the ice and possibly under the shingles. Once it is under the shingles it will flow to seams in the plywood (our HOA has plywood roofs) and from there it can flow into walls, or into garages. Rain on top of iced roofs does exactly the same thing.

Melting snow which has pooled behind the dam will freeze at night. In this manner, repeated days of snowing, partial thawing and then refreezing can cause a sheet of ice to form on roofs, and can fill gutters with ice. Some residents on seeing these icicles find them attractive. Some find them to be dangerous. Some don't realize the possible damage they represent. 

Ice dams do not always cause problems. This is also determined by roof construction and by the location and extent of the ice on the roofs. 

For example, on the new roofs at BLMH, "ice and water shield" is installed along edges and along adjoining areas. These roofs have some protection, but this project is not yet complete. It is my understanding that ice and water shield was not installed on the original roofs and so about 44% of the roofs in this HOA do not have "ice and water shield." I cannot say why this was not done as part of the original construction. Was it part of Wheaton code in 1976-1979 and was it "missed" by the building inspectors? Or was it simply another cost saving shortcut taken by the builder? 

What is ice and water shield? It is a rolled sheet material that is impervious to water. If ice and water shield is installed on 3 feet of lower roof, it will prevent most damage from icing that occurs within 3 feet of the edge. If the roof has 5 feet of such shielding, then ice protection is to within 5 feet of the edge.

The new roofs include additional ventilation and additional attic insulation. This results in a colder attic and a colder roof. This too assists in the avoidance of ice dams. 

I have always remarked that the Manor Homes at BLMH are wonderful, "California Style" buildings. I say that because of the  the large sloped areas which end over the entrances of the A&B garages, and because of the complicated gabled areas. These are wonderful architectural style touches, but can contribute to real problems in heavy rainfall and when icing occurs. These are of course problems that seldom occur in San Francisco but do occur here in the midwest. The roof design is precisely why the association has done a lot of work on improved roofing with ice & water shield, relocated downspouts, additional gutters on some roof edges and drainage improvements. 

I am told some really horrible icing conditions occurred at BLMH in 1984. There was serious damage to a few buildings. Apparently the knowledge gained was put to use when the re-roofing project was undertaken. 

Can Ice and Water Shield Prevent Damage From Ice Dams?
The answer again is determined by the extent of the ice on the roof. If ice dams and ice sheets reach far enough up the roof to go above the shield, then water can flow under the shield. 

How Extensive Was Icing Damage This Winter?
First I must state the the winter is not yet over. Secondly, I don't know the answer. Damage assessment is underway and after all work orders are in and repairs made, the board will know. I have been told that there were leaks in a few units. I don't know how extensive these were. I am aware of some dripping in some entrances and of leaks in some garages. Some old roofs have been remarkably leak free. The building which contains my unit has an old roof. It did not have any leaks (yet). However, some years ago a displaced chimney cap caused quite a problem. My point is, simply having an old roof does not guarantee that leaks will occur. On the other hand, a new roof does not guarantee the complete absence of leaks. It might be prudent to have a concern about the possibility of leaks which assists awareness. Worrying is not helpful, in my opinion.

One thing about this HOA is the fact that with 44 buildings arranged on the property on curving streets we have many differing building orientations. That means that blowing snow goes against some entrances while it does not at others. Some buildings have a gabled roof entrance, some a shed roof entrance and some no overhead protection at the entrance. The roofing project is changing that. Some decks and patios accumulates blowing snow while others do not. The extensive trees, including tall evergreens protect some buildings from the heat of the summer yet prevent the benefits of warm winter sunlight from striking some of the roofs. That winter sun may be helpful in moving snow off of roofs and avoiding icing. Exterior walls of some kitchens are facing east and get morning sunlight and are thereby heated in the winter mornings. Others face west and get afternoon sun. Others face north and get little sun. This is why it is so difficult to treat problems with "cookie cutter" solutions. Such an approach does not always work in a HOA such as BLMH.

Are There Other Preventative Measures?
I have posted that I once owned a home with heat tape installed in the gutters. That was a wonderful solution. If I saw ice forming in the gutters I would turn on the electricity to the heat tape and it melted the snow and ice. Then I would turn it off. Doing this usually kept my gutters cleared. It wasn't perfect, however. In extreme cold it was useless. It had to be maintained every year, but was only used about every three to five years because most years there was no buildup to deal with. While attractive, heat tape may not be financially attractive for a HOA because of the cost of electrical wiring, cost of electricity and cost of annual maintenance of the heat tape.

Would such heat tape work here? The installation of heat tape at BLMH would require annual maintenance and testing. It would require some sort of on-off system, be it thermostat or switch, or both. Our buildings are not currently wired for this. However, it might be worth evaluating the cost versus benefits over the A&B garages. That presents a problem. It's my understanding that the last year this association experienced a really serious problem with ice dams was 1984. That was 30 years ago. So the question to ask is this. Does the cost of installing, maintaining and operating such a system for use occasionally over 30 years justify the benefit? Or is it more effective to use manual means of clearing gutters?  I also need to point out that the icing problem on buildings is more extensive than the gutters over the A&B garages. The additional areas don't have gutters and heat tape would be difficult to install and maintain throughout. Finally, to install such a system would require a commitment by boards to allocate funds for maintenance each and every year. After several years of doing this with no apparent benefit because of mild winters a board might decide it simply isn't worth the annual cost. If not maintained this would result in a system that would not be completely effective. That's a real possibility with buildings with 84 gutters over garages.

Passive systems include ice & water shield, improved attic insulation and improved attic airflow. These reduce the formation or impact of ice dams, particularly over units and above halls and foyers. They are maintenance free and do not require electricity to function. In combination with some manual maintenance on an "as needed" basis they might be the better solution. That's the approach currently in use at BLMH.

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Awful at Managing Money?

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Managing our money is one of those things that is really important. Money is, after all, what we earn from our employment or what we get in that pension or SS check if we are retired. As such it is the "fuel" for all things as a consumer. Yet, managing money is something that seems to elude many of us, and nearly all of us have some difficulty dealing with money.

"People usually get better at things over time.....But there's something about money that gets the better of us. If you look at the rate of personal bankruptcies, financial crises, bubbles, student loans, debt defaults, and savings rates, I wonder whether people are just as bad at managing money today as they were in previous generations, maybe even worse. It's one of the only areas in life we seem to get progressively dumber at." So says Morgan Housal and he recently published a list of the "77 Reasons You're Awful at Managing Money."

I've included a link to the original article. It's one of the best summaries I've ever seen. You and I may not agree with everything Mr. Housal says, but he does provides something to think about.

Here are ten of my of my favorites from Mr. Housal's list. I suggest you use the link on this page to read all of the 77:

2. Your definition of "long term" is the time between now and the next bear market, whenever that is.
10. You get upset when you hear on TV that the government is running a deficit. It doesn't bother you that you heard this on a TV you bought on a credit card in a home you purchased with a no-money-down mortgage.
11. You take out $200,000 in debt to earn a degree in a subject you're not interested in, doesn't offer marketable job skills, and for which you have no intention of working in -- all by age 22.
12. You're part of the roughly half of Americans who can't come up with $2,000 in 30 days for an emergency, even though you're also part of the roughly 100% of Americans who will need to come up with $2,000 in 30 days for an emergency at some point in your life.
13. The single largest expense you'll pay in life is interest. You'll spend more money on interest than food, vacations, cars, school, clothes, dinners out, and all forms of entertainment. You do this because you don't save enough and demand a lifestyle you can't actually afford. The future owns your income.
14. You're thrilled that the credit card you're paying 22% interest on offers 1% cash back on all purchases.
21. You associate all of your financial successes with skill and all of your financial failures with bad luck.
22. Rather than admitting and learning from your mistakes, you ignore them, bury them, make excuses for them, and blame them on others.
35. You think you're doing great by building up an emergency fund that covers three months of living expenses when the average duration of unemployment these days is more like nine months.
50.  You think it's impossible to live on less than $35,000 a year without realizing that literally 99% of the world does, even adjusted for purchasing power parity.

Here's more food for thought from another Housal article:
'As author Matt Ridley put it, "Today, of Americans officially designated as 'poor,' 99 percent have electricity, running water, flush toilets, and a refrigerator; 95 percent have a television, 88 percent a telephone, 71 percent a car and 70 percent air conditioning. Cornelius Vanderbilt had none of these." Nor does much of the world.'

Here's the Link to the Original Article:
Clicking will open a  New Window> 77 Reasons You're awful at Managing Money




Friday, February 21, 2014

Wheaton Tackles the Potholes

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Yes, it has been a tough year for the streets. Here's the latest press release from the City of Wheaton:

Public Works Street Superintendent Mike Wakefield
Friday, Feb. 21, 2014


Crews Take on Potholes Citywide Starting Monday


WHEATON, Ill. – With 22 days of below-zero temperatures and more than 67 inches of snow so far, this winter has been tough on roads. Extended periods of severe cold weather, fluctuating temperatures and excessive amounts of snow have produced excellent conditions for one thing in the Midwest: potholes.

Starting Monday, Feb. 24, two Wheaton Public Works Department crews will begin patching potholes from 7 a.m.-2 p.m. and 10 p.m.-5 a.m. each day until potholes throughout the entire city have been filled.

“This winter has produced some dramatic weather, which unfortunately creates the right conditions for potholes to form,” said Mike Wakefield, City of Wheaton Street Superintendent. “We have seen a significant number of potholes popping up in all parts of the city, so we’re going to be filling them using the same priority routes we use for clearing snow, rather than jumping from one spot to the next.”

The prioritized route system starts with main thoroughfares, then addresses secondary and residential streets, and finishes with cul-de-sacs and dead-ends. This patching will serve as a temporary fix for potholes, as crews need warmer temperatures to perform permanent repairs using new asphalt.

“Please use caution if you’re driving around pothole crews,” Wakefield said. “We appreciate your patience as we work to get to every part of the city.”

Residents can report a pothole through the Online Request Form on the City’s website or call 630-260-2116.

Note for BLMH residents. Our streets are our responsibility. The City of Wheaton will provide absolutely no assistance for the streets or the water mains on the property. Why is that? We are a PUD, or "Private Urban Development." What that means is that Wheaton collects your taxes, but other than Police or Fire assistance, you and this association are entirely on our own. 

Winter Returns, Cold But Little Snow!

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National Margarita Day
That's tomorrow, February 22nd according to Cozymels, a local restaurant:


Doesn't Look Like Margarita Weather to Me
Winter has returned overnight, blowing out the fog, drying a lot of the streets. There are icy patches. The slush is gone, replaced by something like that stuff they are using at Sochi, closer to concrete than to snow.

The falling snow will end with minimal accumulation. It's really small ice crystals and none of that fluffy stuff. It stings when it hits one's face, driven by the gusts of 40 MPH.

Weather patterns for the next 10 days will be cold and falling temperatures with today the warmest. However, snow will end with only a chance of snow until March 2. There is a possibility of snow on March 2.


Today, temperatures will reach a high of 32F and from that point it will be downhill, with temperatures falling to a low of 0F on February 27.



Thursday, February 20, 2014

Weather Update, Rain, High Winds, Possible Flooding, a Hard Freeze and then Back to Winter

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So Far, So Good. The Fog Rolls In!
At 3:00pm the temperature was 39F. That's well below the predicted 48F.  Total rainfall as been between 1 and 1-1/2 inches in Wheaton. That's more than originally expected at the news services but is consistent with the NWS predictions. Most of this has been steady but light rain. There has been no hail and runoff seems to be moderate. More rain is coming but tonight the rain will change to snow and we'll be back into winter. The NWS has now issued a dense fog advisory for this evening and the High Wind Warning remains in effect:
...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CST /8 PM EST/ THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM CST /6 PM EST/
THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CST /MIDNIGHT EST/ THIS EVENING...

The Early Morning Post
It did rain last night, and temperatures will be moderate throughout the day.

Rain will return this afternoon. It will be a hard freeze tonight.

Oops, the experts were off a bit. It was raining very heavily at 11:00am:


[Update] - About 1 inch of rain has already fallen from 8:45pm February 19 through 12:28pm today, per the NWS as shown in the following:


National Weather Service Morning Projections

The National Weather Service (NWS) has issued this  Flood Watch until 3pm.:
* THE COMBINATION OF MELTING SNOW...FROZEN GROUND AND RAINFALL
  TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO LOCALLY UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF WILL
  RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF FLOODING.

* HIGH STANDING WATER AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN POOR DRAINAGE
  AND FLOOD PRONE LOW LYING AREAS. SIGNIFICANT RISES AND
  LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON AREA STREAMS...CREEKS
  AND RIVERS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

The NWS has also issued this High Wind Warning:
...PERIOD OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY THIS EVENING...


...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...HIGHEST THREAT OF GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH LOOKS TO BE DURING THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS.

* WINDS...A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS AS STRONG OF 50 TO AROUND 60 MPH FOR A TIME THIS EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG MAY RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE...EASILY TOSS LIGHTWEIGHT UNSECURED OBJECTS AND MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

Here are the predicted temperatures:


Recent Flood Warning Bulletins
Clicking will open a  New Window> Recent Flood Warning Bulletins

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

Moving Ahead of the Ice Dams and NWS Special Weather Statement

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Efforts continue. Today BLMH had 8 people clearing more snow and ice dams from roofs. There were two lifts on the property. This is an ongoing struggle during this Freeze-Thaw and seemingly snow Every-Other-Day winter.

The association was clearing roofs last week, but the melt and rain didn't happen. Why not? Talk to our local area weather genius Tom Skilling and you will get a hour long explanation. What we did get was an additional 5 inches of snow, which created further problems. It was decided these be cleared and ice dams broken where possible before the rain comes. The lift in this photo has a 60 foot reach, necessary to get to some of the snow and ice at what we call the "D" roof juncture.
Why is this being done? Take a look at these photos as well as a few in recent posts, and you will know why.





But we did have two glorious sunny and balmy days. Now the other shoe will drop.

Here are the National Weather Service advisories issues 4:09PM today.

Hazardous Weather Outlook

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88...WHICH COULD INCLUDE ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 VERY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH COMBINED WITH MELTING SNOW...COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL IN THE MORNING...THEN POSSIBLY GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER POSSIBLE.

IN ADDITION...THE MILD AND MOIST AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE MELTING SNOWPACK COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY DENSE FOG THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

FINALLY...RUN OFF FROM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW MELT COULD LEAD TO RISES AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF ICE JAM FLOODING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.