Winter weather predictions 2019

The Old Farmers Almanac has released the weather predictions for winter 2019.

"This winter, we expect to see above-normal temperatures almost everywhere in the United States, except in the Southwest, where we're predicting a colder-than-normal season......Our milder-than-normal forecast is due to a decrease in solar activity and the expected arrival of a weak El Niño, which will prevent cold air masses from lingering in the North."

For Illinois the Almanac predicts less snow and more rain.

The problem is, this could mean a see-saw winter with frequent temperature changes from below freezing, to above and then back to below. That means more ice! It could be an interesting winter!

I personally prefer winter temperatures consistently in the "mild" below freezing range of 14F to 30F.

Here's a link to the regional weather forecast in the Almanac:

https://www.almanac.com/weather/longrange/region/us/6

El Niño shifting to a La Niña?

The El Niño is moderating according to the NOAA. This weather is usually followed by a La Niña, but not always. So what does this mean for our weather? In the US the El Niño usually results in a warmer than normal winter for part of the country and above normal precipitation for the southern portion of the country. The El Niño of 2015-2016 is one of the strongest on record according to the NOAA, "having large consequences on global weather......The El Niño of 2015-2016 is already one of the strongest on record, having large consequences on global weather."

Basically with an El Niño the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal. As this temperature falls the El Niño is said to moderate. When the temperature of that area of the ocean is cooler than normal it is said to be a La Niña,

Currently the ocean temperature is falling and the NOAA currently predicts that the El Niño conditions are likely to transition to neutral conditions (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during late spring and early summer 2016. "The chance of La Niña conditions will increase to about 65-70% by autumn. Once in place, a La Niña event can last for two years or even longer."

What does this mean for our weather? Long range forecasting is very difficult. However, the April 21 temperature map at the top of this post is the NOAA's best guess at the probability for temperatures for the period of May, June and July 2016. The NOAA gives a 33% probability that temperatures will be above normal in northern Illinois. The map is only a probability. It does not necessarily mean that there will be higher or lower temperatures than normal.

For more about reading the map, Click for NOAA Map Explanation

What about rain? This is the probability map from the NOAA for the same three month period. The white indicates equal probabilities for more rain, a normal amount or less rain for northern Illinois:

During La Niña weather, the sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 3 to 5 °C. In the US a La Niña is declared if these lowered temperature conditions occur for at least five months.  To make things confusing, there are different types of  La Niña, determined by temperatures in the eastern pacific and central pacific ocean.

A La Niña does not always follow an El Niño.

If we do get a La Niña we'll see generally the opposite effects of El Niño. During a La Niña there may be more (above average) precipitation in the northern Midwest, the northern Rockies, Northern California, and portion of the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern states will likely be less (below average).  The La Niña may provide conditions for stronger than average hurricanes in the Atlantic.

An El Niño Year

It's an El Niño year. However, the pattern has been reported as peaking. By Mid-January the pattern should be more normal. The coldest day of the year usually occurs sometime during the last three weeks of January.

Meanwhile, temperatures dip and sway and hover both above and below freezing. That makes for some unpleasant conditions in the vicinity of BLMH. Currently there is the following outlook for today by the National Weather Service:

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
349 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
082200-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
349 PM CST THU JAN 7 2016 /449 PM EST THU JAN 7 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM TRACK AND THUS THE DURATION OF ANY SNOW.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS.

PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

$$